2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 65-69 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in Texas

1. 3,082 of 23,809 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 12.94% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,611 of 22,894 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 529 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 915 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 3,772 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,615 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,082 of 1,369,271 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

3,082 ÷ 1,369,271 = 0.00225 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 30,825 deaths from Unknown Causes among 11,687,844 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

30,825 ÷ 11,687,844 = 0.00264 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,369,271 X 0.00264 = 3,611 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,082 – 3,611 = -529

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,082 ÷ 3,611 = 0.8502

This reveals 529 lives saved and is 85.02% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

19,565 ÷ 8,647,939 = 0.00226 (5-yr CDR)

1,369,271(2022 pop) X 0.00226 = 3,098 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,082 – 3,098 = -16 or 16 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,082 ÷ 3,098 = 0.9905 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,017,210 X 0.00264 = 26,419 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

22647 – 26,419 = -3,772 or 3,772 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

22,647 ÷ 26,419 = 0.8540 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.