2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Teen-aged – 15-19 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Washington

1. 157 of 240 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 65.41% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 198 of 228 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 41 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 12 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 332 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 21 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 157 of 459,601 teens aged 15-19 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

157 ÷ 459,601 = 0.00034 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,883 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,706,105 teens aged 15-19 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,883 ÷ 6,706,105 = 0.00043 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

459,601 X 0.00043 = 198 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

157 – 198 = -41

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

157 ÷ 198 = 0.7765

This reveals 41 lives saved and is 77.65% of what we expected (a decrease of 22%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,055 ÷ 3,131,149 = 0.00034 (5-yr CDR)

459,601(2022 pop) X 0.00034 = 155 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

157 – 155 = 2 or 2 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

157 ÷ 155 = 0.9846 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,590,750 X 0.00043 = 1,544 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1212 – 1,544 = -332 or 332 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,212 ÷ 1,544 = 0.7673 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.