2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 55-59 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in Illinois

1. 6,202 of 6,202 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,716 of 5,716 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 486 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,674 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,202 of 799,304 people aged 55-59 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

6,202 ÷ 799,304 = 0.00776 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 79,922 deaths from All Causes among 11,176,437 people aged 55-59 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

79,922 ÷ 11,176,437 = 0.00715 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

799,304 X 0.00715 = 5,716 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,202 – 5,716 = 486

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,202 ÷ 5,716 = 1.0836

This reveals 486 lives lost and is 108.36% of what we expected (an increase of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

44,358 ÷ 6,036,982 = 0.00735 (5-yr CDR)

799,304(2022 pop) X 0.00735 = 5,873 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,202 – 5,873 = 329 or 329 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,202 ÷ 5,873 = 1.0546 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,836,286 X 0.00715 = 48,886 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

50560 – 48,886 = 1,674 or 1,674 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

50,560 ÷ 48,886 = 1.0328 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.