2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 65-69 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in Texas

1. 23,809 of 23,809 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 22,894 of 22,894 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 915 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,615 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 23,809 of 1,369,271 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas died from All Causes.

23,809 ÷ 1,369,271 = 0.01739 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 195,415 deaths from All Causes among 11,687,844 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

195,415 ÷ 11,687,844 = 0.01672 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,369,271 X 0.01672 = 22,894 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

23,809 – 22,894 = 915

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

23,809 ÷ 22,894 = 1.0394

This reveals 915 lives lost and is 103.94% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

145,289 ÷ 8,647,939 = 0.01680 (5-yr CDR)

1,369,271(2022 pop) X 0.01680 = 23,004 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23,809 – 23,004 = 805 or 805 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

23,809 ÷ 23,004 = 1.0344 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,017,210 X 0.01672 = 167,483 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

169098 – 167,483 = 1,615 or 1,615 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

169,098 ÷ 167,483 = 1.0090 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.