2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 75-79 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in Texas

1. 29,642 of 29,642 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 31,099 of 31,099 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,457 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 13,222 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 29,642 of 745,616 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Texas died from All Causes.

29,642 ÷ 745,616 = 0.03976 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 291,604 deaths from All Causes among 6,991,468 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

291,604 ÷ 6,991,468 = 0.04171 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

745,616 X 0.04171 = 31,099 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

29,642 – 31,099 = -1,457

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

29,642 ÷ 31,099 = 0.9529

This reveals 1,457 lives saved and is 95.29% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

169,946 ÷ 4,356,706 = 0.03901 (5-yr CDR)

745,616(2022 pop) X 0.03901 = 29,085 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

29,642 – 29,085 = 557 or 557 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

29,642 ÷ 29,085 = 1.0189 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,102,322 X 0.04171 = 212,810 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

199588 – 212,810 = -13,222 or 13,222 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

199,588 ÷ 212,810 = 0.9376 or a decrease of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.