2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Canada

1. 4,772 of 4,772 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,863 of 4,863 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 91 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 3,412 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 4,772 of 1,201,609 men aged 50-54 living in Canada died from All Causes.

4,772 ÷ 1,201,609 = 0.00397 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 73,863 deaths from All Causes among 18,251,947 men aged 50-54 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

73,863 ÷ 18,251,947 = 0.00405 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,201,609 X 0.00405 = 4,863 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,772 – 4,863 = -91

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,772 ÷ 4,863 = 0.9789

This reveals 91 lives saved and is 97.89% of what we expected (a decrease of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

38,165 ÷ 10,251,514 = 0.00372 (5-yr CDR)

1,201,609(2023 pop) X 0.00372 = 4,473 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,772 – 4,473 = 299 or 299 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,772 ÷ 4,473 = 1.0639 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,453,123 X 0.00405 = 46,349 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

42937 – 46,349 = -3,412 or 3,412 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

42,937 ÷ 46,349 = 0.9241 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.