2023 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Canada

1. 7,582 of 7,582 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,095 of 8,095 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 513 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 6,839 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 7,582 of 2,430,257 people aged 50-54 living in Canada died from All Causes.

7,582 ÷ 2,430,257 = 0.00312 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 121,871 deaths from All Causes among 36,589,414 people aged 50-54 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

121,871 ÷ 36,589,414 = 0.00333 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,430,257 X 0.00333 = 8,095 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,582 – 8,095 = -513

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,582 ÷ 8,095 = 0.9339

This reveals 513 lives saved and is 93.39% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

62,191 ÷ 20,571,040 = 0.00302 (5-yr CDR)

2,430,257(2023 pop) X 0.00302 = 7,347 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,582 – 7,347 = 235 or 235 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,582 ÷ 7,347 = 1.0286 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

23,001,297 X 0.00333 = 76,612 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

69773 – 76,612 = -6,839 or 6,839 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

69,773 ÷ 76,612 = 0.9080 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.