2022 Deaths – All Causes – Elderly Men And Women – 90+ | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in Alberta

1. 6,169 of 6,169 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,668 of 5,668 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 501 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 445 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,169 of 28,361 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Alberta died from All Causes.

6,169 ÷ 28,361 = 0.21752 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 43,095 deaths from All Causes among 215,653 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

43,095 ÷ 215,653 = 0.19983 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

28,361 X 0.19983 = 5,668 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,169 – 5,668 = 501

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,169 ÷ 5,668 = 1.0884

This reveals 501 lives lost and is 108.84% of what we expected (an increase of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

34,571 ÷ 177,734 = 0.19451 (5-yr CDR)

28,361(2022 pop) X 0.19451 = 5,516 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,169 – 5,516 = 653 or 653 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,169 ÷ 5,516 = 1.1182 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

206,095 X 0.19983 = 41,185 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

40740 – 41,185 = -445 or 445 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

40,740 ÷ 41,185 = 0.9891 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.