2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 90+ | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in Alberta

1. 3,869 of 3,869 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,566 of 3,566 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 303 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 289 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,869 of 19,010 elderly women aged 90+ living in Alberta died from All Causes.

3,869 ÷ 19,010 = 0.20352 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 29,349 deaths from All Causes among 156,458 elderly women aged 90+ living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

29,349 ÷ 156,458 = 0.18758 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

19,010 X 0.18758 = 3,566 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,869 – 3,566 = 303

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,869 ÷ 3,566 = 1.0849

This reveals 303 lives lost and is 108.49% of what we expected (an increase of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,225 ÷ 121,634 = 0.18272 (5-yr CDR)

19,010(2022 pop) X 0.18272 = 3,474 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,869 – 3,474 = 395 or 395 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,869 ÷ 3,474 = 1.1138 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

140,644 X 0.18758 = 26,383 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26094 – 26,383 = -289 or 289 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

26,094 ÷ 26,383 = 0.9890 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.