2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 40-44 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Alberta

1. 447 of 447 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 53% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 291 of 291 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 156 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 397 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 53% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 447 of 171,267 men aged 40-44 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

447 ÷ 171,267 = 0.00261 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,363 deaths from All Causes among 1,982,398 men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,363 ÷ 1,982,398 = 0.00170 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

171,267 X 0.00170 = 291 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

447 – 291 = 156

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

447 ÷ 291 = 1.5295

This reveals 156 lives lost and is 152.95% of what we expected (an increase of 53%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,076 ÷ 1,082,184 = 0.00192 (5-yr CDR)

171,267(2022 pop) X 0.00192 = 329 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

447 – 329 = 118 or 118 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

447 ÷ 329 = 1.3535 or an increase of 35%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,253,451 X 0.00170 = 2,126 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2523 – 2,126 = 397 or 397 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,523 ÷ 2,126 = 1.1796 or an increase of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.