2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 75-79 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Alberta

1. 2,074 of 2,074 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,313 of 2,313 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 239 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,190 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,074 of 55,525 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

2,074 ÷ 55,525 = 0.03735 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,079 deaths from All Causes among 457,969 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,079 ÷ 457,969 = 0.04166 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

55,525 X 0.04166 = 2,313 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,074 – 2,313 = -239

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,074 ÷ 2,313 = 0.8964

This reveals 239 lives saved and is 89.64% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,802 ÷ 306,115 = 0.03529 (5-yr CDR)

55,525(2022 pop) X 0.03529 = 1,959 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,074 – 1,959 = 115 or 115 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,074 ÷ 1,959 = 1.0582 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

361,640 X 0.04166 = 15,066 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12876 – 15,066 = -2,190 or 2,190 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,876 ÷ 15,066 = 0.8544 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.