2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in British Columbia

1. 474 of 474 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 503 of 503 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 29 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 114 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 474 of 349,396 people aged 40-44 living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

474 ÷ 349,396 = 0.00136 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,272 deaths from All Causes among 5,055,840 people aged 40-44 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,272 ÷ 5,055,840 = 0.00144 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

349,396 X 0.00144 = 503 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

474 – 503 = -29

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

474 ÷ 503 = 0.9367

This reveals 29 lives saved and is 93.67% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,110 ÷ 2,221,775 = 0.00140 (5-yr CDR)

349,396(2022 pop) X 0.00140 = 489 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

474 – 489 = -15 or 15 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

474 ÷ 489 = 0.9623 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,571,171 X 0.00144 = 3,698 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3584 – 3,698 = -114 or 114 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,584 ÷ 3,698 = 0.9624 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.