2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 65-69 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in British Columbia

1. 3,438 of 3,438 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,942 of 3,942 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 504 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,174 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,438 of 332,215 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

3,438 ÷ 332,215 = 0.01035 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 33,331 deaths from All Causes among 2,809,076 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

33,331 ÷ 2,809,076 = 0.01187 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

332,215 X 0.01187 = 3,942 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,438 – 3,942 = -504

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,438 ÷ 3,942 = 0.8714

This reveals 504 lives saved and is 87.14% of what we expected (a decrease of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,201 ÷ 2,096,056 = 0.01011 (5-yr CDR)

332,215(2022 pop) X 0.01011 = 3,360 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,438 – 3,360 = 78 or 78 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,438 ÷ 3,360 = 1.0221 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,428,271 X 0.01187 = 28,813 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24639 – 28,813 = -4,174 or 4,174 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,639 ÷ 28,813 = 0.8544 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.