2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 85+ | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85+ in British Columbia

1. 23,595 of 23,595 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 21,042 of 21,042 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,553 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,832 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 23,595 of 248,654 elderly men and women aged 85+ living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

23,595 ÷ 248,654 = 0.09489 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 213,198 deaths from All Causes among 2,519,326 elderly men and women aged 85+ living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

213,198 ÷ 2,519,326 = 0.08463 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

248,654 X 0.08463 = 21,042 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

23,595 – 21,042 = 2,553

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

23,595 ÷ 21,042 = 1.1212

This reveals 2,553 lives lost and is 112.12% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

135,230 ÷ 1,571,056 = 0.08608 (5-yr CDR)

248,654(2022 pop) X 0.08608 = 21,403 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23,595 – 21,403 = 2,192 or 2,192 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

23,595 ÷ 21,403 = 1.1023 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,819,710 X 0.08463 = 153,993 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

158825 – 153,993 = 4,832 or 4,832 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

158,825 ÷ 153,993 = 1.0313 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85+ living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.