2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 90+ | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in British Columbia

1. 6,234 of 6,234 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,804 of 5,804 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 430 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,900 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,234 of 31,649 elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

6,234 ÷ 31,649 = 0.19697 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 51,172 deaths from All Causes among 279,021 elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

51,172 ÷ 279,021 = 0.18340 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

31,649 X 0.18340 = 5,804 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,234 – 5,804 = 430

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,234 ÷ 5,804 = 1.0740

This reveals 430 lives lost and is 107.40% of what we expected (an increase of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

35,286 ÷ 210,555 = 0.16759 (5-yr CDR)

31,649(2022 pop) X 0.16759 = 5,304 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,234 – 5,304 = 930 or 930 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,234 ÷ 5,304 = 1.1753 or an increase of 18%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

242,204 X 0.18340 = 44,420 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

41520 – 44,420 = -2,900 or 2,900 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

41,520 ÷ 44,420 = 0.9347 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.