2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in British Columbia

1. 452 of 452 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 428 of 428 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 24 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 26 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 452 of 157,756 men aged 45-49 living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

452 ÷ 157,756 = 0.00287 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,904 deaths from All Causes among 2,545,277 men aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,904 ÷ 2,545,277 = 0.00271 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

157,756 X 0.00271 = 428 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

452 – 428 = 24

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

452 ÷ 428 = 1.0524

This reveals 24 lives lost and is 105.24% of what we expected (an increase of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,087 ÷ 1,137,204 = 0.00271 (5-yr CDR)

157,756(2022 pop) X 0.00271 = 428 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

452 – 428 = 24 or 24 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

452 ÷ 428 = 1.0516 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,294,960 X 0.00271 = 3,513 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3539 – 3,513 = 26 or 26 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,539 ÷ 3,513 = 1.0038 or an increase of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.