2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in British Columbia

1. 3,766 of 3,766 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,090 of 3,090 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 676 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,597 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,766 of 17,194 elderly men aged 90+ living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

3,766 ÷ 17,194 = 0.21903 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,720 deaths from All Causes among 115,276 elderly men aged 90+ living in British Columbia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,720 ÷ 115,276 = 0.17974 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

17,194 X 0.17974 = 3,090 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,766 – 3,090 = 676

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,766 ÷ 3,090 = 1.2185

This reveals 676 lives lost and is 121.85% of what we expected (an increase of 22%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

19,355 ÷ 102,554 = 0.18873 (5-yr CDR)

17,194(2022 pop) X 0.18873 = 3,245 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,766 – 3,245 = 521 or 521 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,766 ÷ 3,245 = 1.1605 or an increase of 16%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

119,748 X 0.17974 = 21,524 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23121 – 21,524 = 1,597 or 1,597 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

23,121 ÷ 21,524 = 1.0741 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.