2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 45-49 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in British Columbia

1. 123 of 741 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 16.60% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 440% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 20 of 702 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 103 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 39 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 272 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 115 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of British Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 440% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 123 of 323,660 people aged 45-49 living in British Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

123 ÷ 323,660 = 0.00038 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 311 deaths from Unknown Causes among 5,154,334 people aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

311 ÷ 5,154,334 = 0.00006 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

323,660 X 0.00006 = 20 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

123 – 20 = 103

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

123 ÷ 20 = 5.4029

This reveals 103 lives lost and is 540.29% of what we expected (an increase of 440%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

310 ÷ 2,338,498 = 0.00013 (5-yr CDR)

323,660(2022 pop) X 0.00013 = 43 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

123 – 43 = 80 or 80 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

123 ÷ 43 = 2.6657 or an increase of 167%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,662,158 X 0.00006 = 161 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

433 – 161 = 272 or 272 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

433 ÷ 161 = 2.3124 or an increase of 131%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.