2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in British Columbia

1. 216 of 5,927 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.64% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 85% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 115 of 6,912 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 101 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 985 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 191 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 6,778 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of British Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 85% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 216 of 124,596 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in British Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

216 ÷ 124,596 = 0.00173 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,239 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,339,613 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,239 ÷ 1,339,613 = 0.00092 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

124,596 X 0.00092 = 115 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

216 – 115 = 101

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

216 ÷ 115 = 1.8543

This reveals 101 lives lost and is 185.43% of what we expected (an increase of 85%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

799 ÷ 765,919 = 0.00104 (5-yr CDR)

124,596(2022 pop) X 0.00104 = 130 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

216 – 130 = 86 or 86 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

216 ÷ 130 = 1.6460 or an increase of 65%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

890,515 X 0.00092 = 824 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1015 – 824 = 191 or 191 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,015 ÷ 824 = 1.2192 or an increase of 22%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.