2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 90+ | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in British Columbia

1. 327 of 6,234 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 5.25% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 99% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 164 of 5,804 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 163 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 430 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 411 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,900 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of British Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 99% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 327 of 31,649 elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

327 ÷ 31,649 = 0.01033 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,449 deaths from Unknown Causes among 279,021 elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,449 ÷ 279,021 = 0.00519 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

31,649 X 0.00519 = 164 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

327 – 164 = 163

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

327 ÷ 164 = 1.9857

This reveals 163 lives lost and is 198.57% of what we expected (an increase of 99%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,342 ÷ 210,555 = 0.00637 (5-yr CDR)

31,649(2022 pop) X 0.00637 = 202 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

327 – 202 = 125 or 125 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

327 ÷ 202 = 1.6185 or an increase of 62%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

242,204 X 0.00519 = 1,258 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1669 – 1,258 = 411 or 411 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,669 ÷ 1,258 = 1.3244 or an increase of 32%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.