2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Canada

1. 4,094 of 4,094 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,428 of 3,428 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 666 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 584 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,094 of 2,573,624 people aged 40-44 living in Canada died from All Causes.

4,094 ÷ 2,573,624 = 0.00159 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 51,241 deaths from All Causes among 38,467,725 people aged 40-44 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

51,241 ÷ 38,467,725 = 0.00133 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,573,624 X 0.00133 = 3,428 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,094 – 3,428 = 666

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,094 ÷ 3,428 = 1.1853

This reveals 666 lives lost and is 118.53% of what we expected (an increase of 19%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,322 ÷ 16,819,251 = 0.00133 (5-yr CDR)

2,573,624(2022 pop) X 0.00133 = 3,416 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,094 – 3,416 = 678 or 678 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,094 ÷ 3,416 = 1.1896 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

19,392,875 X 0.00133 = 25,832 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26416 – 25,832 = 584 or 584 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

26,416 ÷ 25,832 = 1.0150 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.