2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 50-54 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Canada

1. 7,593 of 7,593 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,073 of 8,073 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 480 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,326 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,593 of 2,423,627 people aged 50-54 living in Canada died from All Causes.

7,593 ÷ 2,423,627 = 0.00313 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 121,871 deaths from All Causes among 36,589,414 people aged 50-54 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

121,871 ÷ 36,589,414 = 0.00333 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,423,627 X 0.00333 = 8,073 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,593 – 8,073 = -480

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,593 ÷ 8,073 = 0.9378

This reveals 480 lives saved and is 93.78% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

54,598 ÷ 18,147,413 = 0.00301 (5-yr CDR)

2,423,627(2022 pop) X 0.00301 = 7,292 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,593 – 7,292 = 301 or 301 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,593 ÷ 7,292 = 1.0379 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,571,040 X 0.00333 = 68,517 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

62191 – 68,517 = -6,326 or 6,326 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

62,191 ÷ 68,517 = 0.9049 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.