2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 90+ | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in Canada

1. 46,178 of 46,178 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 45,185 of 45,185 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 993 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 10,247 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 46,178 of 238,591 elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada died from All Causes.

46,178 ÷ 238,591 = 0.19354 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 390,105 deaths from All Causes among 2,059,879 elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

390,105 ÷ 2,059,879 = 0.18938 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

238,591 X 0.18938 = 45,185 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

46,178 – 45,185 = 993

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

46,178 ÷ 45,185 = 1.0219

This reveals 993 lives lost and is 102.19% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

275,656 ÷ 1,514,905 = 0.18196 (5-yr CDR)

238,591(2022 pop) X 0.18196 = 43,415 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

46,178 – 43,415 = 2,763 or 2,763 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

46,178 ÷ 43,415 = 1.0636 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,753,496 X 0.18938 = 332,081 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

321834 – 332,081 = -10,247 or 10,247 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

321,834 ÷ 332,081 = 0.9691 or a decrease of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.