2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Canada

1. 1,975 of 1,975 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 57% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,245 of 1,245 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 730 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,274 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 57% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,975 of 1,417,447 men aged 30-34 living in Canada died from All Causes.

1,975 ÷ 1,417,447 = 0.00139 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,961 deaths from All Causes among 17,037,061 men aged 30-34 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,961 ÷ 17,037,061 = 0.00088 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,417,447 X 0.00088 = 1,245 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,975 – 1,245 = 730

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,975 ÷ 1,245 = 1.5688

This reveals 730 lives lost and is 156.88% of what we expected (an increase of 57%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,512 ÷ 9,074,264 = 0.00116 (5-yr CDR)

1,417,447(2022 pop) X 0.00116 = 1,642 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,975 – 1,642 = 333 or 333 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,975 ÷ 1,642 = 1.1925 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,491,711 X 0.00088 = 9,213 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12487 – 9,213 = 3,274 or 3,274 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,487 ÷ 9,213 = 1.3401 or an increase of 34%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.