2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 35-39 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Canada

1. 2,294 of 2,294 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 45% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,567 of 1,567 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 727 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,554 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 45% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,294 of 1,370,181 men aged 35-39 living in Canada died from All Causes.

2,294 ÷ 1,370,181 = 0.00167 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,601 deaths from All Causes among 18,017,622 men aged 35-39 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,601 ÷ 18,017,622 = 0.00114 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,370,181 X 0.00114 = 1,567 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,294 – 1,567 = 727

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,294 ÷ 1,567 = 1.4516

This reveals 727 lives lost and is 145.16% of what we expected (an increase of 45%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,866 ÷ 8,780,156 = 0.00135 (5-yr CDR)

1,370,181(2022 pop) X 0.00135 = 1,852 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,294 – 1,852 = 442 or 442 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,294 ÷ 1,852 = 1.2297 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,150,337 X 0.00114 = 11,606 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14160 – 11,606 = 2,554 or 2,554 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,160 ÷ 11,606 = 1.2095 or an increase of 21%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.