2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 45-49 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Canada

1. 3,231 of 3,231 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,038 of 3,038 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 193 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,083 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,231 of 1,190,306 men aged 45-49 living in Canada died from All Causes.

3,231 ÷ 1,190,306 = 0.00271 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 49,875 deaths from All Causes among 19,539,220 men aged 45-49 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

49,875 ÷ 19,539,220 = 0.00255 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,190,306 X 0.00255 = 3,038 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,231 – 3,038 = 193

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,231 ÷ 3,038 = 1.0593

This reveals 193 lives lost and is 105.93% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

20,131 ÷ 8,386,357 = 0.00240 (5-yr CDR)

1,190,306(2022 pop) X 0.00240 = 2,857 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,231 – 2,857 = 374 or 374 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,231 ÷ 2,857 = 1.1261 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,576,663 X 0.00255 = 24,445 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23362 – 24,445 = -1,083 or 1,083 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

23,362 ÷ 24,445 = 0.9520 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.