2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 70-74 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Canada

1. 20,105 of 20,105 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 23,802 of 23,802 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 3,697 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 31,236 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 20,105 of 897,586 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada died from All Causes.

20,105 ÷ 897,586 = 0.02240 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 204,213 deaths from All Causes among 7,700,958 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

204,213 ÷ 7,700,958 = 0.02652 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

897,586 X 0.02652 = 23,802 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

20,105 – 23,802 = -3,697

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

20,105 ÷ 23,802 = 0.8444

This reveals 3,697 lives saved and is 84.44% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

115,854 ÷ 5,407,393 = 0.02143 (5-yr CDR)

897,586(2022 pop) X 0.02143 = 19,231 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

20,105 – 19,231 = 874 or 874 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

20,105 ÷ 19,231 = 1.0450 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,304,979 X 0.02652 = 167,195 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

135959 – 167,195 = -31,236 or 31,236 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

135,959 ÷ 167,195 = 0.8129 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.