2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 90+ | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in Canada

1. 2,429 of 46,178 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 5.26% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 58% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,530 of 45,185 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 899 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 993 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,667 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 10,247 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 58% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,429 of 238,591 elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

2,429 ÷ 238,591 = 0.01018 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,213 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,059,879 elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,213 ÷ 2,059,879 = 0.00641 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

238,591 X 0.00641 = 1,530 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,429 – 1,530 = 899

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,429 ÷ 1,530 = 1.5847

This reveals 899 lives lost and is 158.47% of what we expected (an increase of 58%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,486 ÷ 1,514,905 = 0.00692 (5-yr CDR)

238,591(2022 pop) X 0.00692 = 1,651 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,429 – 1,651 = 778 or 778 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,429 ÷ 1,651 = 1.4687 or an increase of 47%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,753,496 X 0.00641 = 11,248 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12915 – 11,248 = 1,667 or 1,667 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,915 ÷ 11,248 = 1.1464 or an increase of 15%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.