2023 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 15-19 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Canada

1. 807 of 807 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 930 of 930 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 123 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 1,173 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 807 of 2,233,251 teens aged 15-19 living in Canada died from All Causes.

807 ÷ 2,233,251 = 0.00036 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,618 deaths from All Causes among 32,697,132 teens aged 15-19 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,618 ÷ 32,697,132 = 0.00042 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,233,251 X 0.00042 = 930 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

807 – 930 = -123

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

807 ÷ 930 = 0.8473

This reveals 123 lives saved and is 84.73% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,935 ÷ 16,771,226 = 0.00035 (5-yr CDR)

2,233,251(2023 pop) X 0.00035 = 790 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

807 – 790 = 17 or 17 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

807 ÷ 790 = 0.9931 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

19,004,477 X 0.00042 = 7,915 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6742 – 7,915 = -1,173 or 1,173 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,742 ÷ 7,915 = 0.8318 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.