2023 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 30-34 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Canada

1. 3,132 of 3,132 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 56% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,974 of 1,974 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,158 excess deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 5,645 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 56% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 3,132 of 2,976,658 people aged 30-34 living in Canada died from All Causes.

3,132 ÷ 2,976,658 = 0.00105 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 22,525 deaths from All Causes among 33,960,390 people aged 30-34 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

22,525 ÷ 33,960,390 = 0.00066 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,976,658 X 0.00066 = 1,974 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,132 – 1,974 = 1,158

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,132 ÷ 1,974 = 1.5628

This reveals 1,158 lives lost and is 156.28% of what we expected (an increase of 56%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,257 ÷ 20,760,440 = 0.00088 (5-yr CDR)

2,976,658(2023 pop) X 0.00088 = 2,618 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,132 – 2,618 = 514 or 514 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,132 ÷ 2,618 = 1.1830 or an increase of 18%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

23,737,098 X 0.00066 = 15,744 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21389 – 15,744 = 5,645 or 5,645 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,389 ÷ 15,744 = 1.3384 or an increase of 34%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.