2023 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Canada

1. 4,228 of 4,228 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,563 of 3,563 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 665 excess deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 1,249 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 4,228 of 2,674,762 people aged 40-44 living in Canada died from All Causes.

4,228 ÷ 2,674,762 = 0.00158 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 51,241 deaths from All Causes among 38,467,725 people aged 40-44 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

51,241 ÷ 38,467,725 = 0.00133 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,674,762 X 0.00133 = 3,563 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,228 – 3,563 = 665

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,228 ÷ 3,563 = 1.1778

This reveals 665 lives lost and is 117.78% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

26,416 ÷ 19,392,875 = 0.00136 (5-yr CDR)

2,674,762(2023 pop) X 0.00136 = 3,643 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,228 – 3,643 = 585 or 585 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,228 ÷ 3,643 = 1.1520 or an increase of 15%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

22,067,637 X 0.00133 = 29,395 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30644 – 29,395 = 1,249 or 1,249 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

30,644 ÷ 29,395 = 1.0347 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.