2023 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Canada

1. 5,141 of 5,141 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,182 of 5,182 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 41 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 3,228 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 5,141 of 2,456,827 people aged 45-49 living in Canada died from All Causes.

5,141 ÷ 2,456,827 = 0.00209 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 82,329 deaths from All Causes among 39,033,337 people aged 45-49 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

82,329 ÷ 39,033,337 = 0.00211 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,456,827 X 0.00211 = 5,182 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,141 – 5,182 = -41

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,141 ÷ 5,182 = 0.9874

This reveals 41 lives saved and is 98.74% of what we expected (a decrease of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

37,477 ÷ 19,279,441 = 0.00194 (5-yr CDR)

2,456,827(2023 pop) X 0.00194 = 4,776 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,141 – 4,776 = 365 or 365 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,141 ÷ 4,776 = 1.0710 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

21,736,268 X 0.00211 = 45,846 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

42618 – 45,846 = -3,228 or 3,228 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

42,618 ÷ 45,846 = 0.9252 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.