2023 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 85-89 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85-89 in Canada

1. 48,161 of 48,161 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 54,888 of 54,888 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 6,727 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 47,247 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 48,161 of 540,554 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Canada died from All Causes.

48,161 ÷ 540,554 = 0.08910 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 554,664 deaths from All Causes among 5,462,463 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

554,664 ÷ 5,462,463 = 0.10154 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

540,554 X 0.10154 = 54,888 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

48,161 – 54,888 = -6,727

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

48,161 ÷ 54,888 = 0.8773

This reveals 6,727 lives saved and is 87.73% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

369,140 ÷ 4,034,430 = 0.09150 (5-yr CDR)

540,554(2023 pop) X 0.09150 = 49,459 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

48,161 – 49,459 = -1,298 or 1,298 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

48,161 ÷ 49,459 = 0.9736 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,574,984 X 0.10154 = 464,548 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

417301 – 464,548 = -47,247 or 47,247 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

417,301 ÷ 464,548 = 0.8982 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.