2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Canada

1. 19,227 of 19,227 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 24,232 of 24,232 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 5,005 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 36,241 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 19,227 of 913,806 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada died from All Causes.

19,227 ÷ 913,806 = 0.02104 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 204,213 deaths from All Causes among 7,700,958 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

204,213 ÷ 7,700,958 = 0.02652 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

913,806 X 0.02652 = 24,232 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

19,227 – 24,232 = -5,005

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

19,227 ÷ 24,232 = 0.7931

This reveals 5,005 lives saved and is 79.31% of what we expected (a decrease of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

135,959 ÷ 6,304,979 = 0.02156 (5-yr CDR)

913,806(2023 pop) X 0.02156 = 19,705 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19,227 – 19,705 = -478 or 478 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

19,227 ÷ 19,705 = 0.9753 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,218,785 X 0.02652 = 191,427 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

155186 – 191,427 = -36,241 or 36,241 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

155,186 ÷ 191,427 = 0.8104 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.