2022 Deaths – All Causes – Teen-aged – Ages 15-19 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Manitoba

1. 62 of 62 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.98% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 60 of 60 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 54 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 62 of 85,298 teens aged 15-19 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

62 ÷ 85,298 = 0.00073 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 846 deaths from All Causes among 1,205,091 teens aged 15-19 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

846 ÷ 1,205,091 = 0.00070 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

85,298 X 0.00070 = 60 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

62 – 60 = 2

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

62 ÷ 60 = 1.0208

This reveals 2 lives lost and is 102.08% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

369 ÷ 605,087 = 0.00061 (5-yr CDR)

85,298(2022 pop) X 0.00061 = 52 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

62 – 52 = 10 or 10 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

62 ÷ 52 = 1.1727 or an increase of 17%

for deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

690,385 X 0.00070 = 485 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

431 – 485 = -54 or 54 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

431 ÷ 485 = 0.8768 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.