2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 55-59 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in Manitoba

1. 545 of 545 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 522 of 522 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 23 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 136 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 545 of 84,712 people aged 55-59 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

545 ÷ 84,712 = 0.00643 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,632 deaths from All Causes among 1,076,714 people aged 55-59 living in Manitoba in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,632 ÷ 1,076,714 = 0.00616 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

84,712 X 0.00616 = 522 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

545 – 522 = 23

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

545 ÷ 522 = 1.0428

This reveals 23 lives lost and is 104.28% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,678 ÷ 622,953 = 0.00590 (5-yr CDR)

84,712(2022 pop) X 0.00590 = 500 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

545 – 500 = 45 or 45 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

545 ÷ 500 = 1.0878 or an increase of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

707,665 X 0.00616 = 4,359 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4223 – 4,359 = -136 or 136 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,223 ÷ 4,359 = 0.9673 or a decrease of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.