2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 90+ | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in Manitoba

1. 2,640 of 2,640 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,118 of 2,118 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 522 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,654 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,640 of 12,278 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

2,640 ÷ 12,278 = 0.21502 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 22,009 deaths from All Causes among 127,599 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

22,009 ÷ 127,599 = 0.17249 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

12,278 X 0.17249 = 2,118 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,640 – 2,118 = 522

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,640 ÷ 2,118 = 1.2465

This reveals 522 lives lost and is 124.65% of what we expected (an increase of 25%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

15,739 ÷ 84,686 = 0.18585 (5-yr CDR)

12,278(2022 pop) X 0.18585 = 2,282 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,640 – 2,282 = 358 or 358 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,640 ÷ 2,282 = 1.1569 or an increase of 16%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

96,964 X 0.17249 = 16,725 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

18379 – 16,725 = 1,654 or 1,654 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

18,379 ÷ 16,725 = 1.0988 or an increase of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.