2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 90+ | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in Manitoba

1. 1,728 of 1,728 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 24% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,394 of 1,394 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 334 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,221 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 24% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,728 of 8,584 elderly women aged 90+ living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

1,728 ÷ 8,584 = 0.20130 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,310 deaths from All Causes among 94,267 elderly women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,310 ÷ 94,267 = 0.16241 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

8,584 X 0.16241 = 1,394 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,728 – 1,394 = 334

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,728 ÷ 1,394 = 1.2394

This reveals 334 lives lost and is 123.94% of what we expected (an increase of 24%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,672 ÷ 60,247 = 0.17714 (5-yr CDR)

8,584(2022 pop) X 0.17714 = 1,521 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,728 – 1,521 = 207 or 207 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,728 ÷ 1,521 = 1.1364 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

68,831 X 0.16241 = 11,179 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12400 – 11,179 = 1,221 or 1,221 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,400 ÷ 11,179 = 1.1092 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.