2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 75-79 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Manitoba

1. 782 of 782 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 985 of 985 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 203 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,252 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 782 of 20,277 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

782 ÷ 20,277 = 0.03857 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,608 deaths from All Causes among 197,879 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,608 ÷ 197,879 = 0.04855 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

20,277 X 0.04855 = 985 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

782 – 985 = -203

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

782 ÷ 985 = 0.7941

This reveals 203 lives saved and is 79.41% of what we expected (a decrease of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,610 ÷ 116,549 = 0.03955 (5-yr CDR)

20,277(2022 pop) X 0.03955 = 802 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

782 – 802 = -20 or 20 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

782 ÷ 802 = 0.9748 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

136,826 X 0.04855 = 6,644 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5392 – 6,644 = -1,252 or 1,252 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,392 ÷ 6,644 = 0.8114 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.