2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 85-89 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in Manitoba

1. 885 of 885 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 852 of 852 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 33 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 372 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 885 of 6,861 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

885 ÷ 6,861 = 0.12899 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,339 deaths from All Causes among 75,162 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,339 ÷ 75,162 = 0.12425 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

6,861 X 0.12425 = 852 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

885 – 852 = 33

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

885 ÷ 852 = 1.0381

This reveals 33 lives lost and is 103.81% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,356 ÷ 46,362 = 0.11553 (5-yr CDR)

6,861(2022 pop) X 0.11553 = 793 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

885 – 793 = 92 or 92 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

885 ÷ 793 = 1.1165 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

53,223 X 0.12425 = 6,613 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6241 – 6,613 = -372 or 372 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,241 ÷ 6,613 = 0.9437 or a decrease of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.