2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in New Brunswick

1. 1,035 of 1,035 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,187 of 1,187 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 152 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,397 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,035 of 49,155 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

1,035 ÷ 49,155 = 0.02106 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,762 deaths from All Causes among 404,417 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New Brunswick in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,762 ÷ 404,417 = 0.02414 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

49,155 X 0.02414 = 1,187 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,035 – 1,187 = -152

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,035 ÷ 1,187 = 0.8719

This reveals 152 lives saved and is 87.19% of what we expected (a decrease of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,825 ÷ 292,899 = 0.01989 (5-yr CDR)

49,155(2022 pop) X 0.01989 = 978 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,035 – 978 = 57 or 57 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,035 ÷ 978 = 1.0582 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

342,054 X 0.02414 = 8,257 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6860 – 8,257 = -1,397 or 1,397 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,860 ÷ 8,257 = 0.8305 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.