2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in New Brunswick

1. 1,179 of 1,179 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,375 of 1,375 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 196 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,039 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,179 of 21,502 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

1,179 ÷ 21,502 = 0.05483 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,164 deaths from All Causes among 237,214 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,164 ÷ 237,214 = 0.06393 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

21,502 X 0.06393 = 1,375 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,179 – 1,375 = -196

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,179 ÷ 1,375 = 0.8576

This reveals 196 lives saved and is 85.76% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,422 ÷ 129,292 = 0.05740 (5-yr CDR)

21,502(2022 pop) X 0.05740 = 1,234 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,179 – 1,234 = -55 or 55 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,179 ÷ 1,234 = 0.9550 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

150,794 X 0.06393 = 9,640 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8601 – 9,640 = -1,039 or 1,039 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

8,601 ÷ 9,640 = 0.8921 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.