2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in New Brunswick

1. 262 of 262 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 334 of 334 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 72 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 277 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 262 of 30,933 men aged 60-64 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

262 ÷ 30,933 = 0.00847 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,372 deaths from All Causes among 312,761 men aged 60-64 living in New Brunswick in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,372 ÷ 312,761 = 0.01078 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

30,933 X 0.01078 = 334 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

262 – 334 = -72

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

262 ÷ 334 = 0.7849

This reveals 72 lives saved and is 78.49% of what we expected (a decrease of 22%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,037 ÷ 207,979 = 0.00979 (5-yr CDR)

30,933(2022 pop) X 0.00979 = 303 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

262 – 303 = -41 or 41 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

262 ÷ 303 = 0.8639 or a decrease of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

238,912 X 0.01078 = 2,576 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2299 – 2,576 = -277 or 277 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,299 ÷ 2,576 = 0.8917 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.