2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 90+ | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in New Brunswick

1. 78 of 1,576 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.95% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 61 of 1,895 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 17 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 319 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 42 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,129 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New Brunswick’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 78 of 7,601 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick died from Unknown Causes.

78 ÷ 7,601 = 0.01026 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 593 deaths from Unknown Causes among 73,727 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

593 ÷ 73,727 = 0.00804 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

7,601 X 0.00804 = 61 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

78 – 61 = 17

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

78 ÷ 61 = 1.2743

This reveals 17 lives lost and is 127.43% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

341 ÷ 49,653 = 0.00687 (5-yr CDR)

7,601(2022 pop) X 0.00687 = 52 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

78 – 52 = 26 or 26 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

78 ÷ 52 = 1.4920 or an increase of 49%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

57,254 X 0.00804 = 461 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

419 – 461 = -42 or 42 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

419 ÷ 461 = 0.9087 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.