2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Newfoundland

1. 819 of 819 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 952 of 952 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 133 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,231 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 819 of 34,780 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland died from All Causes.

819 ÷ 34,780 = 0.02355 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,552 deaths from All Causes among 275,993 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,552 ÷ 275,993 = 0.02736 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

34,780 X 0.02736 = 952 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

819 – 952 = -133

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

819 ÷ 952 = 0.8603

This reveals 133 lives saved and is 86.03% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,553 ÷ 206,538 = 0.02204 (5-yr CDR)

34,780(2022 pop) X 0.02204 = 767 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

819 – 767 = 52 or 52 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

819 ÷ 767 = 1.0677 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

241,318 X 0.02736 = 6,603 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5372 – 6,603 = -1,231 or 1,231 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,372 ÷ 6,603 = 0.8132 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.