2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 85-89 | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85-89 in Newfoundland

1. 957 of 957 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 849 of 849 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 108 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 46 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 957 of 6,986 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Newfoundland died from All Causes.

957 ÷ 6,986 = 0.13699 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,526 deaths from All Causes among 78,398 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,526 ÷ 78,398 = 0.12151 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

6,986 X 0.12151 = 849 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

957 – 849 = 108

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

957 ÷ 849 = 1.1273

This reveals 108 lives lost and is 112.73% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,382 ÷ 44,807 = 0.12012 (5-yr CDR)

6,986(2022 pop) X 0.12012 = 839 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

957 – 839 = 118 or 118 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

957 ÷ 839 = 1.1404 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

51,793 X 0.12151 = 6,293 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6339 – 6,293 = 46 or 46 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,339 ÷ 6,293 = 1.0072 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.