2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 90+ | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Newfoundland

1. 276 of 276 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 65% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 792 of 792 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 516 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,628 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 65% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 276 of 1,227 elderly men aged 90+ living in Newfoundland died from All Causes.

276 ÷ 1,227 = 0.22494 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,023 deaths from All Causes among 9,328 elderly men aged 90+ living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,023 ÷ 9,328 = 0.64569 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,227 X 0.64569 = 792 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

276 – 792 = -516

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

276 ÷ 792 = 0.3484

This reveals 516 lives saved and is 34.84% of what we expected (a decrease of 65%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,553 ÷ 7,225 = 0.21495 (5-yr CDR)

1,227(2022 pop) X 0.21495 = 264 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

276 – 264 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

276 ÷ 264 = 1.0464 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,452 X 0.64569 = 5,457 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1829 – 5,457 = -3,628 or 3,628 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,829 ÷ 5,457 = 0.3351 or a decrease of 66%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.