2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Pre-schooler – 0-4 | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for pre-schoolers aged 0-4 in Newfoundland

1. 4 of 25 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 15.99% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 377% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1 of 25 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 3 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 0 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 9 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 43 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Newfoundland’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 377% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many pre-schoolers aged 0-4 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4 of 19,502 pre-schoolers aged 0-4 living in Newfoundland died from Unknown Causes.

4 ÷ 19,502 = 0.00021 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12 deaths from Unknown Causes among 363,694 pre-schoolers aged 0-4 living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12 ÷ 363,694 = 0.00003 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

19,502 X 0.00003 = 1 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4 – 1 = 3

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4 ÷ 1 = 4.7705

This reveals 3 lives lost and is 477.05% of what we expected (an increase of 377%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among pre-schoolers aged 0-4 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11 ÷ 151,826 = 0.00007 (5-yr CDR)

19,502(2022 pop) X 0.00007 = 1 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4 – 1 = 3 or 3 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4 ÷ 1 = 2.4876 or an increase of 149%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among pre-schoolers aged 0-4 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

171,328 X 0.00003 = 6 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15 – 6 = 9 or 9 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

15 ÷ 6 = 2.0363 or an increase of 104%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among pre-schoolers aged 0-4 living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.