2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 25-29 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 25-29 in Ontario

1. 764 of 764 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 38% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 542 of 542 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 222 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,224 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 38% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 25-29 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 764 of 1,125,870 people aged 25-29 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

764 ÷ 1,125,870 = 0.00068 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,152 deaths from All Causes among 12,775,365 people aged 25-29 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,152 ÷ 12,775,365 = 0.00048 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,125,870 X 0.00048 = 542 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

764 – 542 = 222

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

764 ÷ 542 = 1.3805

This reveals 222 lives lost and is 138.05% of what we expected (an increase of 38%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,400 ÷ 7,056,300 = 0.00062 (5-yr CDR)

1,125,870(2022 pop) X 0.00062 = 702 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

764 – 702 = 62 or 62 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

764 ÷ 702 = 1.0711 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,182,170 X 0.00048 = 3,940 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5164 – 3,940 = 1,224 or 1,224 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,164 ÷ 3,940 = 1.2840 or an increase of 28%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.