2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 60-64 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 60-64 in Ontario

1. 7,383 of 7,383 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,133 of 8,133 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 750 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,271 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,383 of 1,004,859 people aged 60-64 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

7,383 ÷ 1,004,859 = 0.00735 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 77,702 deaths from All Causes among 9,600,357 people aged 60-64 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

77,702 ÷ 9,600,357 = 0.00809 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,004,859 X 0.00809 = 8,133 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,383 – 8,133 = -750

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,383 ÷ 8,133 = 0.9067

This reveals 750 lives saved and is 90.67% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

46,064 ÷ 6,373,511 = 0.00723 (5-yr CDR)

1,004,859(2022 pop) X 0.00723 = 7,263 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,383 – 7,263 = 120 or 120 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,383 ÷ 7,263 = 1.0152 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,378,370 X 0.00809 = 59,718 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

53447 – 59,718 = -6,271 or 6,271 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

53,447 ÷ 59,718 = 0.8939 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.